← Carina Cunha

From First Principles of Persuasion — How to see, map and influence any system.

The Energy Equation

Why people say yes, say no, and change their minds.

Carina Cunha

Everything runs on energy

Everything runs on energy.

Persuasion follows the same laws that govern the universe:

E = mc²

Energy is conserved, transferred, and dissipated. Systems that persist regulate energy expenditure, from the nuclear fusion of stars to the metabolic processes that sustain our bodies.

Life developed inside this framework. Natural selection favored organisms capable of acquiring and allocating finite resources well enough to survive.

We inherited the results.

You pay for attention with energy.

  • Perception carries cost.
  • Interpretation carries cost.
  • Choice carries cost.

Every time you ask someone to pay attention, listen, trust you, invest in your company, buy something, change their mind, take a risk, or simply say yes, you are asking a biological system to allocate resources.

Underneath the explanations we construct around our decisions sits a simpler question:

Is this worth the energy?

That is where persuasion begins.


Every yes has a price

We tend to evaluate propositions according to their obvious costs.

  • How much does it cost?
  • How much time will it take?
  • What will I receive in return?

Humans are calculating far more than that.

Saying yes can require someone to spend:

Attention
Understanding what you are asking.
Cognitive effort
Processing information, comparing alternatives, resolving ambiguity.
Time
Giving up something else they could be doing.
Money
Allocating a finite financial resource.
Risk
Accepting the possibility of loss or failure.
Uncertainty
Moving toward an outcome they cannot fully predict.
Status
Risking how other people perceive them.
Belonging
Taking a position that may separate them from their group.
Identity
Acting in a way that conflicts with who they believe themselves to be.
Opportunity
Closing one path by choosing another.

This is why an objectively attractive proposition can still receive a no.

The person is not evaluating your proposition in isolation.

They are evaluating the distance between where they are now and where saying yes requires them to go.


The Energy Equation

PERCEIVED VALUE − PERCEIVED COST, adjusted for RISK + CONSTRAINTS, determines the likelihood of MOVEMENT

This is a decision model, not a literal quantitative equation.

The useful question is:

Does the destination justify the expenditure required to reach it?

You have two fundamental levers.

1. Reduce cost

  • Make the information easier to understand.
  • Reduce ambiguity.
  • Make the next action smaller.
  • Remove unnecessary decisions.
  • Increase reversibility.
  • Reduce risk.
  • Increase trust.
  • Change the timing.
  • Change the path.

2. Increase perceived value

Connect the outcome to something the other person actually wants.

  • Money. Security. Autonomy. Status. Time.
  • Recognition. Belonging. Achievement. Control. Meaning.

But value only exists inside the model of the person making the decision.

You cannot declare something valuable and expect another system to calculate it the same way.

The same opportunity may represent financial security to one person, autonomy to another, prestige to another, and an unacceptable loss of time to someone else.


You are probably solving the wrong equation

Two people can encounter the same proposition and reach opposite conclusions.

Imagine offering someone a role that doubles their compensation but requires them to move across the world.

You see:

  • More money.
  • A better title.
  • Professional opportunity.
  • Status.
  • Career acceleration.

They see:

  • Elderly parents they can no longer reach in fifteen minutes.
  • Children separated from their grandparents.
  • Loss of an established social system.
  • Finite time with people they love converted into occasional flights home.

The proposition has not changed.

The calculation has.

This is where a large amount of failed persuasion begins.

You calculate the value of the proposition from inside your hierarchy and then become confused when the other person does not reach the same conclusion.

But your calculation does not determine their behavior.

Theirs does.


Stop treating every no as an objection

Some nos are costs. Some nos are constraints.

This distinction matters enormously.

A cost can potentially be reduced or outweighed.

A constraint may require the system itself to change.

Someone cannot invest money they do not have. They cannot allocate time that does not exist. They cannot make a decision someone else has authority to make. They cannot accept a risk that violates a regulatory requirement. They may be unwilling to make a choice that carries an identity, social or personal cost greater than anything you can reasonably offer in return.

When persuasion fails, people often respond by adding more force:

  • More arguments. More information. More meetings.
  • More pressure. More follow-ups. More urgency.

Sometimes resistance means more energy is required.

Sometimes you are pushing against a wall.

If the constraint cannot move, move something else.

  • Change the timing.
  • Reduce the resources required.
  • Find another decision-maker.
  • Alter the structure.
  • Reduce the commitment.
  • Increase reversibility.
  • Remove a dependency.
  • Wait for the environment to change.

Or accept the no.


The four questions

Before you try to persuade anyone, ask four questions.

1. What do they want?
Not what should they want. Not what you want them to want. What outcome already carries value inside their system?
2. What does saying yes cost them?
Look beyond money. What must they understand, risk, change, surrender, explain, defend, or give up?
3. What are they protecting?
Time? Money? Identity? Autonomy? Status? Belonging? Certainty? Reputation? An existing decision?
4. What would have to change for movement to make sense from inside their model of the world?
More value? Less risk? Less uncertainty? A smaller commitment? A different structure? Different timing? A different messenger? Or genuinely different conditions?

This last question converts persuasion from:

What can I say to make them move?

into:

What conditions would make movement rational for this system?

That shift is the foundation for everything that follows in First Principles of Persuasion.


The beginning, not the whole system

Persuasion operates through fit.

A persuasive proposition fits into the existing architecture of the person receiving it with minimal unnecessary recalibration.

  • It connects to something they understand.
  • It addresses something they value.
  • It resolves a constraint they experience.
  • It arrives through a source they can trust.
  • It asks for movement they can make at a cost they can sustain toward an outcome they actually want.

When those variables align, persuasion can appear effortless.

When they do not, extraordinary amounts of energy can produce almost no movement.

The objective is not to push harder.

It is to understand the system well enough to see where movement is possible.

Return to the main page →